Abstract
Uncertainties in estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and
Transient Climate Response (TCR) are influenced by observational
datasets. Variability exists not just among the data products, but also
within the creation of individual ones. This includes significant
variations among ensemble members within a single data product. Using
the optimal fingerprint approach combined with Bayesian updating, we
quantify the uncertainties in ECS and TCR estimates arising from both
individual datasets and their various groupings. Our methodology,
utilizing both spatial and temporal data, reveals impacts on the
estimates of ECS and TCR. As we assess different groupings of
observational data products, we observe that using products sharing
identical Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) introduces a discernible
biases. Furthermore, these results highlight that the variations among
ensemble members within a single data product are as influential as the
disparities across multiple data products.