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The Effect of Pseudo-Global Warming on the Weather-Climate System of Africa in a Convection-Permitting Model
  • Kelly M Nunez Ocasio,
  • Erin Dougherty
Kelly M Nunez Ocasio

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Erin Dougherty
National Center for Atmospheric Reserach
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The weather-climate system of Africa encompassing the African easterly jet (AEJ) and the West African Monsoon (WAM) can largely modulate high-impact weather over Africa and the tropical Atlantic. How the weather-climate system of Africa will change with a warming climate is just starting to be addressed due to global climate model limitations in resolving convection. We employ a novel atmospheric convection-permitting model regional setup alongside the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach to address climate change impacts on the weather-climate system of Africa. Our findings indicate that the AEJ and areas of monsoon flow intensify in a future warming climate scenario together with an increase in monsoonal moisture. Moreover, precipitation will increase over high topography and shift southward due to a latitudinal expansion and increase of deep convection closer to the equator. This has relevant ramifications for the livelihood of communities that depend on water-fed crops in tropical Africa.
09 Mar 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
15 Mar 2024Published in ESS Open Archive