Trends and projections in climate-related stressors impacting Arctic
marine ecosystems -- A CMIP6 model analysis
Abstract
Eleven Earth System Models (ESMs) contributing to the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were evaluated with respect to
climate-related stressors impacting Arctic marine ecosystems
(temperature, sea ice, oxygen, ocean acidification). Stressors show
regional differences and varying differences over time and space among
models. Trend magnitudes increase over time and are highest by
end-of-century for temperature and O2. Differences between scenarios
SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for these variables vary among models and regions,
mainly driven by sea-ice retreat. Differences in biogeochemical
parameterizations contribute to acidification differences. Projections
indicate consistent ocean acidification until 2040 and faster
progression for the higher emission scenario thereafter. For SSP5-8.5
all Arctic regions show aragonite undersaturation by 2080, and calcite
undersaturation for all but two regions by 2100 for all models. Most
regions can avoid calcite undersaturation with lower emissions
(SSP2-4.5). All variables show increases in seasonal amplitude, most
prominently for temperature and oxygen. Calcium carbonate saturation
state (Ω) shows little change to the seasonal range and a suggestion of
temporal shifts in extrema. Seasonal changes in Ω may be underestimated
due to lacking carbon cycle processes within sea ice in CMIP6 models.
The analysis emphasizes regionally varying threats from multiple
stressors on Arctic marine ecosystems and highlights the propagation of
uncertainties from sea ice to temperature and biogeochemical variables.
Large model differences in seasonal cycles emphasize the need for
improved model constraints, predominantly the representation of sea-ice
decline, to enhance the applicability of CMIP models in multi-stressor
impacts assessments.