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Significant reduction of unequal population exposure to climate extremes by achieving the carbon neutrality
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  • Seok-Geun Oh,
  • Jung Choi,
  • Min-Jee Kang,
  • Sujong Jeong,
  • Seung-Ki Min,
  • Sang-Wook Yeh,
  • Yeon-Hee Kim,
  • Seok-Woo Son
Seok-Geun Oh
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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Jung Choi
Seoul National University
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Min-Jee Kang
Seoul National University
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Sujong Jeong
Seoul National University
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Seung-Ki Min
Pohang University of Science and Technology
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Sang-Wook Yeh
Hanyang University, ERICA
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Yeon-Hee Kim
Pohang University of Science and Technology
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Seok-Woo Son
Seoul National University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Climate extremes, such as hot temperature and heavy precipitation events, have devastating effects on human societies. As the planet gets warmer, they have become more intense and more frequent. To avoid irreversible damages from climate extremes, many countries have committed to achieving net-zero anthropogenic carbon emissions, or carbon neutrality, by the 2050s. Here, we quantify the impact of carbon neutrality on population exposure to climate extremes using multi-model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. It is found that the increasing population exposure to hot-temperature and heavy-precipitation extremes under SSP3-7.0 scenario can be substantially reduced by 87–98% in the late 21st century by achieving the carbon neutrality based on SSP1-1.9 scenario. The benefits of carbon neutrality are particularly pronounced in Africa and Asia. The potential benefits of carbon neutrality are also significant in North America, Europe, and Oceania, where a reduction in climate extremes is more than twice as important as population decline in reducing population exposure to climate extremes. These results provide important scientific support for ongoing efforts to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by the 2050s to reduce potential climate risk and its inequity across continents.
05 Jan 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
16 Jan 2024Published in ESS Open Archive