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Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilising Climate
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  • Andrea J. Dittus,
  • Matthew Collins,
  • Rowan Sutton,
  • Ed Hawkins
Andrea J. Dittus
University of Reading

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Matthew Collins
University of Exeter
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Rowan Sutton
NCAS, Univ. Reading
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Ed Hawkins
Prof. Ed Hawkins
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Precipitation projections in transient climate change scenarios have been extensively studied over multiple climate model generations. Although these simulations have also been used to make projections at specific Global Warming Levels (GWLs), dedicated simulations are more appropriate to study changes in a stabilising climate. Here, we analyse precipitation projections in six multi-century experiments with fixed atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, conducted with the UK Earth System Model (UKESM) and which span a range of GWLs between 1.5 and 5°C of warming. Regions are identified where the sign of precipitation trends in high-emission transient projections is reversed in the stabilisation experiments. For example, stabilisation reverses a summertime precipitation decline across Europe. This precipitation recovery occurs concurrently with changes in the pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperature trends due to a slow recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the stabilisation experiments, along with changes in humidity and atmospheric circulation.
15 Dec 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
27 Dec 2023Published in ESS Open Archive