Evaluation of CMIP6 HighResMIP in simulating the annual cycle of
tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific
Abstract
Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and coupled general
circulation models (CGCMs) in the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison
Project (HighResMIP) were evaluated on their ability to simulate
tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific over its
annual cycle. Specifically, we examined these models’ ability to
simulate the south-north migration of mean TC genesis location. The
results revealed that both types of models realistically captured TC
numbers and the south-north migration of TC genesis locations in
response to the annual cycle. However, TC number decreased less rapidly
in the AGCMs than in both the CGCMs and observed data during the monsoon
retreat period (after September). This bias was attributed to a cyclonic
anomaly in the Philippine Sea in response to La Nin ̵̃a-like sea surface
temperature (SST) differences between the AGCMs and the CGCMs. This
cyclonic anomaly occurred when the northeasterly trade wind arose and
was maintained through wind-evaporation-SST feedback.