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Data assimilation for fault slip monitoring and short-term prediction of slow slip events: an application to the 2010 long-term slow slip event in the Bungo Channel
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  • Masayuki Kano,
  • Yusuke Tanaka,
  • Daisuke Sato,
  • Takeshi Iinuma,
  • Takane Hori
Masayuki Kano
Tohoku University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Yusuke Tanaka
Tohoku University
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Daisuke Sato
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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Takeshi Iinuma
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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Takane Hori
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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Abstract

Monitoring and predicting fault slip behaviors in subduction zones are essential for understanding earthquake cycles and assessing future earthquake potential. We developed a data assimilation (DA) method for fault slip monitoring and short-term prediction of slow slip events (SSEs), which was applied to the 2010 Bungo Channel SSE in southwest Japan. The observed geodetic data were quantitatively explained using a physics-based model with DA. We investigated short-term predictability by assimilating observation data with limited periods. Without prior constraint on fault slip style, observations solely during slip acceleration predicted the occurrence of a fast slip; however, the inclusion of slip deceleration data successfully predicted a slow transient slip. With prior constraint to exclude unstable slip, the assimilation of data after the SSE occurrence predicted a slow transient slip. This study provided a tool using DA for fault slip monitoring and prediction based on real observation data.
02 Dec 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
03 Dec 2023Published in ESS Open Archive