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Observational and modelling analysis of Canada’s only F5/EF5 tornado
  • +1
  • Chun-Chih Wang,
  • John Hanesiak,
  • Justin J. Hobson,
  • Mateusz Taszarek
Chun-Chih Wang
University of Manitoba
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John Hanesiak
University of Manitoba

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Justin J. Hobson
Environment and Climate Chanage Canada
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Mateusz Taszarek
Adam Mickiewicz University
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Canada’s first and only F5/EF5 tornado associated with a supercell touched down near Elie, Manitoba in the late afternoon of 22 June 2007. An observational and numerical simulation analysis with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was undertaken to characterize the pre-storm environment and processes leading to storm initiation. WRF sufficiently reproduced the synoptic and mesoscale features, including a supercell-like storm in the region of interest, and supplemented available observations. Synthesis of observational and simulation data suggests that the environment near Elie immediately before storm initiation was primed for tornadic supercells, with large most-unstable and mixed-layer convective available potential energy (4000 J kg^-1) and sufficient vertical shear (effective bulk wind shear 40 kt; effective storm-relative helicity >200 m2 s^-2). Despite enhancement owing to a cold pool left behind by passing early-afternoon convection, shear remained weaker than those typically found in other North American significant tornadic supercell events. The interaction between a surface trough and convective boundary-layer thermals was the primary triggering mechanism of the Elie supercell. The former appeared to be associated with a low pressure arising from the juxtaposition of lower-troposphere cyclonic differential vorticity advection and lee troughing over the western Red River Valley. More observational analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments are required to better diagnose Manitoba terrain’s contribution to the Elie supercell initiation.
21 Nov 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
22 Nov 2023Published in ESS Open Archive