Abstract
Canada’s first and only F5/EF5 tornado associated with a supercell
touched down near Elie, Manitoba in the late afternoon of 22 June 2007.
An observational and numerical simulation analysis with the Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was undertaken to characterize the
pre-storm environment and processes leading to storm initiation. WRF
sufficiently reproduced the synoptic and mesoscale features, including a
supercell-like storm in the region of interest, and supplemented
available observations. Synthesis of observational and simulation data
suggests that the environment near Elie immediately before storm
initiation was primed for tornadic supercells, with large most-unstable
and mixed-layer convective available potential energy (4000 J kg^-1)
and sufficient vertical shear (effective bulk wind shear 40 kt;
effective storm-relative helicity >200 m2 s^-2). Despite
enhancement owing to a cold pool left behind by passing early-afternoon
convection, shear remained weaker than those typically found in other
North American significant tornadic supercell events. The interaction
between a surface trough and convective boundary-layer thermals was the
primary triggering mechanism of the Elie supercell. The former appeared
to be associated with a low pressure arising from the juxtaposition of
lower-troposphere cyclonic differential vorticity advection and lee
troughing over the western Red River Valley. More observational analysis
and numerical sensitivity experiments are required to better diagnose
Manitoba terrain’s contribution to the Elie supercell initiation.