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Extreme hydroclimatic events compromise adaptation planning in agriculture based on long-term trends
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  • Vojtěch Moravec,
  • Yannis Markonis,
  • Miroslav Trnka,
  • Martin Hanel
Vojtěch Moravec
Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

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Yannis Markonis
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
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Miroslav Trnka
Global Change Research Institute CAS
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Martin Hanel
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
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Climate projections suggest an increase in drought frequency and intensity in various places over the globe, one of them being Southern Europe, expected to become a hotspot. However, 2018 presented an anomaly with the emergence of a rare “water seesaw” phenomenon, leading to severe drought in Central and Northern Europe while Southern Europe experienced high humidity. This unexpected event resulted in significant agricultural disparities, emphasizing the influence of interannual variability. The commentary underscores the danger of overlooking short-term climate variability, vital for accurate adaptation planning, especially for vulnerable regions, when focusing solely on long-term trends. This case serves as a motivation for exploration of global atmospheric circulation changes, emphasizing the need for nuanced modeling approaches to grasp subtle complexities in climate predictions and considering short-term climate variability alongside long-term trends.
02 Nov 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
03 Nov 2023Published in ESS Open Archive