Abstract
The Earth System is warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions which increases the risk of passing a tipping point in the
Earth System, such as a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (AMOC). An AMOC weakening can have large climate impacts
which influences the marine and terrestrial carbon cycle and hence
atmospheric pCO2. However, the sign and mechanism of this response are
subject to uncertainty. Here, we use a state-of-the-art Earth System
Model, the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2), to study the
atmospheric pCO2 response to an AMOC weakening under low (SSP1-2.6) and
high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios. A freshwater flux anomaly in the
North Atlantic strongly weakens the AMOC, and we simulate a weak
positive pCO2 response of 0.45 and 1.3 ppm increase per AMOC decrease in
Sv for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. For SSP1-2.6 this response
is driven by both the oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycles, whereas in
SSP5-8.5 it is solely the ocean that drives the response. However, the
spatial patterns of both the climate and carbon cycle response are
similar in both emission scenarios over the course of the simulation
period (2015-2100), showing that the response pattern is not dependent
on cumulative CO2 emissions up to 2100. Though the global atmospheric
pCO2 response might be small, locally large changes in both the carbon
cycle and the climate system occur due to the AMOC weakening, which can
have large detrimental effects on ecosystems and society.