US tornado outbreaks in May: characteristics of atmospheric patterns
identified by maximum covariance analysis
Abstract
Under a warming climate, it is unclear how environments associated with
US tornado outbreaks are changing. This work narrows this gap by using
maximum covariance analysis (MCA) to find multivariate relationships
between 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies and a severe thunderstorm
proxy – WMAXSHEAR (a product of convective available potential energy
and 0–6 km vertical wind shear) associated with past (1950-2019) May
major tornado outbreaks. Results highlight three main patterns that
explain the majority of covariance between tornado outbreaks and the
large-scale atmospheric environment. Tornado outbreaks occurring under
the dominant pattern (MCA1) initiate at different hours of the day
and tend to last for many hours. Tornado outbreaks associated with the
second (MCA2) and third (MCA3) patterns are shorter in duration and tend
to initiate during the warmest daytime hours. Moreover, an increase in
the magnitude and the spatial extent of the patterns conducive to
tornado outbreaks was observed after 1980.