The dominant source and volume of highest river floods have shifted in
Finland and northern Russia.
Abstract
We analyzed observations on floods in rivers located in Finland and
northern Russia where
hazardous floods often happen during a spring flooding period. We
evaluated the length of
spring flooding periods, the volume of spring floods, the yearly maximum
water discharges
(annual floods) and their dates from hydrographs. The hydrographs were
evaluated using the
daily water discharges given in yearly books published by the national
hydrological services. The
long term time series of annual and spring floods were used to define
shifts (step changes) by
applying the moving window technique. Three statistical criteria namely
the Student test, the
Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the Mann-Whitney test were used. Our results
suggest that the
annual floods were recorded in the spring flooding period in more than
85 % of the rivers
selected. In the last two decades, the number of annual floods that
happened in autumn-winter
season increased almost twice in the southern Finnish rivers. The
melting snow remains the
dominant source for the highest floods in the rivers located in northern
Finland and Russia. The
step changes were defined in half of the time series of the annual
floods and spring floods. In
over a one-third of the records of the spring floods, the step changes
dated to the late 1990s,
since then the volume of floods increased by 21 % on average. The step
changes in the records of
the annual floods dated to the early 1950s, mid 1970s and early 1990s.