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Potential predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a superparameterizated model
  • Sarah Weidman,
  • Zhiming Kuang
Sarah Weidman
Harvard University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Zhiming Kuang
Harvard University
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The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a promising target for improving sub-seasonal weather forecasts. Current forecast models struggle to simulate the MJO due to imperfect convective parameterizations and mean state biases, degrading their forecast skill. Previous studies have estimated a potential MJO predictability 5-15 days higher than current forecast skill, but these estimates also use models with parameterized convection. We perform a perfect-model predictability experiment using a superparameterized global model, in which the convective parameterization is replaced by a cloud resolving model. We add a second silent cloud resolving component to the control simulation that independently calculates convective-scale processes using the same large-scale forcings. The second set of convective states are used to initialize forecasts, representing uncertainty on the convective scale. We find a potential predictability of the MJO of 35-40 days in boreal winter using a single-member ensemble forecast.
01 Aug 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
04 Aug 2023Published in ESS Open Archive