Abstract
We propose a framework to assess monthly GCM precipitation and
temperature simulations with the aim of achieving robust annual and
seasonal climatic projections. The approach is based on a Past
Performance Index (PPI) inspired by the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) and
accounts for climatological averages, interannual variability, seasonal
cycle, monthly probabilistic distribution and spatial patterns of
climatological means. The PPI formulation is flexible enough to include
additional evaluation metrics and weight them differently, enabling the
diagnostics and classification of GCMs in a simple diagram that shows
the joint performance for precipitation and temperature. We demonstrate
the utility of this approach to evaluate 27 CMIP6 models and constrain
the spread of projections in five regions with very different climates
across continental Chile. We also examine the degree of correspondence
between the ensemble of models classified as ‘satisfactory’ based on the
PPI and the capability of GCMs to reproduce teleconnection responses to
El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. The results
show that the approach is useful to discriminate models that do not
reproduce the seasonal precipitation cycle and to narrow the spread of
projected annual and seasonal changes. The best models, according to the
PPI, do not necessarily overlap with those that replicate historically
observed teleconnections, suggesting that the latter criterion
complements our GCM assessment framework. Finally, we show that model
features that can be improved through bias correction can be excluded
from the model evaluation process to avoid culling models that reproduce
historically observed teleconnections.