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Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a warmer climate : robust versus uncertain changes with a large convection-permitting model ensemble
  • +16
  • Cecile Caillaud,
  • Samuel Somot,
  • Hervé Douville,
  • Antoinette Alias,
  • Sophie Bastin,
  • Susanne Brienen,
  • Marie-Estelle Demory,
  • Andreas Dobler,
  • Hendrik Feldmann,
  • Thomas Frisius,
  • Klaus Goergen,
  • Elizabeth Kendon,
  • Klaus Georg Keuler,
  • Geert Lenderlink,
  • Paola Mercogliano,
  • Emanuela Pichelli,
  • Pedro M. M. Soares,
  • Merja Tölle,
  • Hylke de Vries
Cecile Caillaud
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Samuel Somot
Météo-France / CNRM
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Hervé Douville
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Antoinette Alias
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS
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Sophie Bastin
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Susanne Brienen
Deutscher Wetterdienst
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Marie-Estelle Demory
Wyss Academy for Nature
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Andreas Dobler
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
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Hendrik Feldmann
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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Thomas Frisius
Helmholtz-Zentrum hereon GmbH
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Klaus Goergen
Research Centre Jülich
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Elizabeth Kendon
Met Office Hadley Centre
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Klaus Georg Keuler
Brandenburg University of Technology (BTU) Cottbus-Senftenberg
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Geert Lenderlink
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Paola Mercogliano
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Emanuela Pichelli
Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics
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Pedro M. M. Soares
Instituto Dom Luiz, CGUL, University of Lisbon
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Merja Tölle
Departement of Bioclimatology, U of Göttingen
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Hylke de Vries
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
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Taking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting-Regional Climate Models on a pan-Alpine domain and of an object-oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in the high-impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify a robust multi-model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial extension of the affected areas, a dominant influence of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the frequency, an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of convection-permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes in events’ properties, including for the most intense events. Model diversity and international coordination are still needed to provide policy-relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes.
19 Jul 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
20 Jul 2023Published in ESS Open Archive