Stochastic in Space and Time: Part 1, Characterizing Orographic
Gradients in Mean Runoff and Daily Runoff Variability
Abstract
Mountain topography alters the phase, amount, and spatial distribution
of precipitation. Past efforts focused on how orographic precipitation
alters runoff spatial distribution, but with less emphasis on how
stochastic runoff generation is also patterned on topography. Given the
importance of the magnitude and frequency of stochastic runoff events to
fluvial erosion, we evaluate whether orographic patterns in mean runoff
and daily runoff variability can be constrained using the global
WaterGAP3 water model data. Model runoff data is validated against
observational data in the contiguous United States, showing agreement
with mean runoff in all settings and daily runoff variability in
settings where rainfall-runoff predominates. In snowmelt-influenced
settings, runoff variability is overestimated by the water model data.
Cognizant of these limitations, we use the water model data to develop
relationships between mean runoff and daily runoff variability and how
these are mediated by snowmelt fraction in mountain topography globally.
Attempts to explain topographic controls on hydro-climatic variables
using a Random Forest Regression model were less clear. Instead,
relationships between topography and runoff parameters are better
assessed at mountain range scale. Rulesets linking topography to mean
runoff and snowmelt fraction are developed for three mid-latitude
mountain landscapes—British Columbia, European Alps, and Greater
Caucasus. Increasing topographic elevation and relief together lead to
higher mean runoff and lower runoff variability due to the increasing
contribution of snowmelt. The three sets of empirical relationships
developed here serve as the basis for a suite of numerical experiments
in our companion manuscript to this one (Part 2).