Modulation of western South Atlantic marine heatwaves by meridional
ocean heat transport
Abstract
Marine heatwaves and cold spells are extreme surface temperature events
that have been associated with adverse societal and ecosystem impacts in
several regions around the globe. Predicting these events presents a
challenge because of their generally short-lived nature and dependence
on air-sea interactions, both locally and remotely. Here we analyze
oceanic propagating features that promote the occurrence of marine
heatwaves and cold spells in the western subtropical South Atlantic. The
main interannual feature detected from satellite sea level data since
1993 shows a westward propagating zonal pattern with a periodicity of
3-5 years. The pattern has a significant in-phase correlation with sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western South Atlantic,
explaining 77% of the daily extreme warm (90%) and cold (10%) SST
anomalies and consequently modulating interannual variations in the
intensity and duration of marine heatwave and cold spell events. It is
found that meridional oceanic advection plays an important role in the
regional heat budget associated with the westward-propagating mode,
modulating the meridional exchange of tropical (warm) and extratropical
(cold) waters in the western subtropical South Atlantic region and
thereby setting a baseline for temperature extremes on interannual
timescales. This propagating mode is well correlated (r >
0.6) with the strength of the meridional overturning circulation at 25°S
and 30°S with a lag of approximately 5 to 9 months. The lagged response
provides a potential for predictability of extreme events in the western
South Atlantic.