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Winter Euro-Atlantic blocking activity less sensitive to climate change than previously evaluated
  • Simon L. L. Michel,
  • Anna S. von der Heydt,
  • Henk A. Dijkstra
Simon L. L. Michel
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Anna S. von der Heydt
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University
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Henk A. Dijkstra
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht
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Winter Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking events have significant socioeconomical impacts as they cause various types of weather extremes in a range of regions. According to current climate projections, fewer of these blocking events will occur as temperatures rise. However, the timing of such a reduction is currently highly uncertain. Meanwhile, recent studies indicate that using climate models with high enough ocean resolutions to simulate mesoscale eddies improve simulated winter Euro-Atlantic blocking events significantly. In this paper, we show from a large ensemble of climate simulations based on the highest emission scenario that largely prominent and coarsely resolved non-eddying climate models project a noticeable significant decline in blocking frequencies from the 2030s-2040s, whereas blocking statistics in eddy-permitting simulations are noticeably decreasing only from years 2060s. Our result suggests with a strong level of confidence that winter blocking activity over the next several decades will keep being dominated by internal variability.
29 Jun 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
03 Jul 2023Published in ESS Open Archive