Abstract
Meteorological droughts will become the principal factor driving
compound hot-dry events and analysis thereof is therefore fundamental
with regard to understanding future climate patterns. The average
citizen knows little of geometry, but it plays an essential role in the
characteristics of the droughts, by means of “fractional lengths”. We
analysed the fractality of the meteorological droughts under the most
recent climate change scenarios. A temporal fractality measure based
upon the Cantor set reveals consensual changes in the behavior of
droughts worldwide. Most regions will undergo a slight increase in
fractality (up to +10% on average), particularly associated with an
acceleration of the hydrological cycle and the Hadley cell expansion,
with a shift towards the higher latitudes of the tropical edge in both
hemispheres. Geometrical measures were applied to the dry spells
(<1mm) simulated by Earth System Models of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), showing more concentrated or
unequal distribution of droughts in mid latitudes. Simultaneously, the
polar regions might benefit from more regular precipitation patterns.
Other inequality measures, such as the indices of Gini and Monjo, showed
similar results. In general terms, the earth’s climate will be more
fractal in the rainfall-related patterns, which likely means that the
consequences will be more catastrophic for the human population.