Assessing the Fate of Sphagnum Moss in the Hengduan Mountains under
Climate change is one of the most serious challenges facing mankind.
Sphagnum moss plays an important role in the carbon sink of peatland.
Understanding the potential distribution of Sphagnum moss under climate
change scenarios is critical for the conservation and rational
exploitation of it. In this study, we divided the Hengduan Mountains
(HDM) into east (EHDM) and west (WHDM) parts to see the difference
between the whole and the parts, and understand the effects of integrity
and connectivity of the landscape on species distribution. Since no
enough occurrence data in EHDM, we applied the occurrence data in WHDM.
Then, MaxEnt model was employed to predict the potential distribution of
Sphagnum moss and computed the migratory paths of the distribution
center points. We found precipitation in the coldest quarter, daily
range of average temperature, isothermality and slope were the main
factors affecting the suitable habitat for Sphagnum moss in HDM and
WHDM. In HDM, the current potential suitable habitat is 2.6×104 km2, and
will increase over 8 times and tend to shift northeastward and higher
elevations in the future. In WHDM, the suitable area is 1.06×104 km2,
but will decline exceeds 70% under most future climate scenarios, and
tend to shift southward and lower elevations. Landscape integrity and
connectivity have a great impact on the distribution of HDM Sphagnum
moss species. Overall, our findings provide a reference for the
conservation and management of Sphagnum moss.