European summer synoptic circulations and their observed 2022 and
projected influence on hot and dry extremes
- Pedro Herrera-Lormendez,
- Hervé Douville,
- Jorg Matschullat
Jorg Matschullat
Interdisciplinary Environmental Research Center, Freiberg Technical University and Bergakademie, Germany
Author ProfileAbstract
In 2022, western Europe experienced its hottest summer on record and
widespread dry conditions, with substantial impacts on health, water and
vegetation. Here we use a reanalysis to classify daily mean sea level
pressure fields and investigate the influence of synoptic circulations
on the occurrence of temperature extremes and dry days. Summer 2022
featured an above-normal occurrence of anticyclones extending from the
British Isles to the Baltic countries, as well as enhanced easterly,
southerly and low-flow conditions which contributed to the observed
extremes over southern and western Europe. While the hot summer of 2022
is only marginally explained by circulation anomalies, such anomalies
played a key role in the exceptional occurrence of dry days. The
comparison with summer circulation anomalies projected by twenty global
climate models moreover suggests that future circulation changes will
further exacerbate hot and dry extremes over Europe.17 May 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive 25 May 2023Published in ESS Open Archive