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Extreme value analysis of ground magnetometer observations at Valentia Observatory, Ireland
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  • Alexandra Ruth Fogg,
  • Caitriona M Jackman,
  • John Malone-Leigh,
  • Peter Gallagher,
  • Andrew W Smith,
  • Mark Lester,
  • Maria-Theresia Walach,
  • James Edwin Waters
Alexandra Ruth Fogg
School of Cosmic Physics, DIAS Dunsink Observatory, Dublin Institute For Advanced Studies

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Caitriona M Jackman
Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies
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John Malone-Leigh
School of Cosmic Physics, DIAS Dunsink Observatory, Dublin Institute For Advanced Studies
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Peter Gallagher
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Andrew W Smith
Northumbria University
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Mark Lester
University of Leicester
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Maria-Theresia Walach
Lancaster University
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James Edwin Waters
Laboratoire d'Astrophysique de Marseille
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Understanding global space weather effects is of great importance to the international scientific community, but more localised space weather predictions are important on a national level. In this study, data from a ground magnetometer at Valentia Observatory is used to characterise space weather effects on the island of Ireland. The horizontal component of magnetometer observations and its time derivative are considered, and extreme values of these are identified. These extremes are fit to a generalised extreme value distribution, and from this model return values (the expected magnitude of an observation within a given time window) are predicted. The causes of extreme values are investigated both in a case study, and also statistically by looking at contributions from geomagnetic storms, substorms, and sudden commencements. This work characterises the extreme part of the distribution of space weather effects on Ireland (and at similar latitudes), and hence examines those space weather observations which are likely to have the greatest impact on susceptible technologies.
25 May 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
25 May 2023Published in ESS Open Archive