The Lifecycle of New Zealand Atmospheric Rivers and Relationship with
the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Abstract
New Zealand atmospheric river (AR) lifecycles are analyzed to examine
the synoptic conditions that produce extreme precipitation and regular
flooding. An AR lifecycle tracking algorithm, novel to the region, is
utilized to identify the genesis location of New Zealand ARs: the
location where moisture fluxes enhance and become distinct synoptic
features capable of producing impactful weather conditions. Genesis
locations of ARs that later impact New Zealand cover a broad region
extending from the Southern Indian Ocean (90°E) into the South Pacific
(170°W) with the highest genesis frequency being in the Tasman Sea. The
most impactful ARs, associated with heavy precipitation, tend to
originate from distinct regions based on landfall location. Impactful
North Island ARs tend to originate from subtropical regions to the
northwest of New Zealand, while impactful South Island ARs are
associated with genesis over southeast Australia. The synoptic
conditions of impactful AR genesis are identified with North Island ARs
typically associated with a cyclone in the central Tasman Sea along with
a distant, persistent low pressure off the coast of West Antarctica.
South Island AR genesis typically occurs in conjunction with moist
conditions over Australia associated with a zonal synoptic-scale
wavetrain. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is examined as a
potential source of variability that modulates New Zealand AR
lifecycles. It appears that the MJO modulates AR characteristics,
especially during Phase 5, typically bringing more frequent, slow moving
ARs with greater moisture fluxes to the North Island of New Zealand.