loading page

Accelerated Historical and Future Warming over the Middle East and North Africa in Response to the Global Temperature Change
  • +6
  • Abdul MALIK,
  • Georgiy Stenchikov,
  • Suleiman Mostamandi,
  • Sagar Parajuli,
  • Jos Lelieveld,
  • George Zittis,
  • Muhammad Sheraz Ahsan,
  • Luqman Atique,
  • Muhammad Usman
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Georgiy Stenchikov
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Author Profile
Suleiman Mostamandi
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Author Profile
Sagar Parajuli
Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
Author Profile
Jos Lelieveld
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
Author Profile
George Zittis
The Cyprus Institute
Author Profile
Muhammad Sheraz Ahsan
Institute of Geographical Information Systems, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
Author Profile
Luqman Atique
Department of Meteorology, COMSATS University,
Author Profile
Muhammad Usman
Department of Life and Environmental Sciences,
Author Profile


The global average temperature has increased significantly since the preindustrial era. Translating global warming into regional scales is crucial to formulate effective environmental and climate policies. A realistic assessment of regional climate change requires high-resolution datasets. We present a new high-resolution (9 km) analysis of historical and future regional warming over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) using observations, reanalysis products, and statistically downscaled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5 and 6. The observed regional temperature change over the MENA subregions appears to be up to three times faster than the global average. Regional warming has already surpassed the 1.5 ℃ and is at the brink of exceeding 2 ℃. By the end of the 21st century, the Arabian Peninsula will warm from 2.66 ± 0.57 to 7.61 ± 1.53 ℃ under the low (SSP1–2.6) and high-end (SSP5–8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We identify spatially distinct summer and winter warming hotspots. The most prominent spots in summer are the Arabian Peninsula Hotspot Region (APHR) and Algerian Hotspot Region. Major winter hotspots appear over Mauritania in West Arica and the Elburz Mountains. Moreover, APHR has already exceeded 2 °C of warming and will warm by about 9 °C under the high-end emission scenario by the end of the century. The 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 ℃ global warming levels are associated with substantial regional warming of 2.1 ± 0.2, 2.76 ± 0.2, 4.19 ± 0.25, and 5.49 ± 0.38 ℃, respectively, over the Arabian Peninsula.
24 May 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
25 May 2023Published in ESS Open Archive