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Future global population exposure to record-breaking climate extremes
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  • Bohao Li,
  • Kai Liu,
  • Ming Wang,
  • Qianzhi Wang,
  • Qian He,
  • Chenxia Li
Bohao Li
Beijing Normal University
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Kai Liu
Beijing Normal University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Ming Wang
Beijing Normal University
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Qianzhi Wang
Beijing Normal University
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Qian He
Beijing Normal University
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Chenxia Li
Capital Normal University
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Abstract

The increase in record-breaking extreme events caused by climate change poses a threat to human health and well-being; understanding the future impacts of such events on global populations can provide decision-making support for policies aiming to mitigate climate change. Here, we investigated the population exposure to eight climate extreme indices and drivers of exposure trajectories based on NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and population projection data under four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios at a spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25°. The results show that by the mid-21st century, most regions around the world, especially Africa and South America, will continue to experience record-breaking temperatures and compound drought and heatwaves (CDHWs). Regarding population exposure, under the worst-case scenario of SSP3-7.0 in the late 21st century, the mean value of the multimodel median expected annual exposure (EAE) of all extreme temperature indices and CDHW reaches 8.79 billion persons per year; population exposure hotspots will be concentrated in Central Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Asia, mostly in developing countries, where 62.77%-87.42% of the EAE is found. The drivers of exposure trajectories are spatially heterogeneous; the increase in record-breaking probability contributes more than population growth to EAE growth in most regions of the world except Central Asia, the Middle East, and most of Africa. These findings highlight the necessity of using various climate extreme indices to reveal spatiotemporal patterns of population exposure, which can provide references for future adaptation decisions and risk management.
12 May 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
13 May 2023Published in ESS Open Archive