Stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize Northern Hemisphere
terrestrial permafrost under the ARISE-SAI-1.5 scenario
Abstract
Permafrost, or ground that is continuously frozen for at least two
years, contains vast stores of organic soil carbon. Stratospheric
aerosol injection (SAI) may prevent tipping points that lead to
widespread permafrost thaw and carbon release by cooling surface and
soil temperatures, but it is unclear if or when permafrost could
stabilize after SAI deployment. Using the ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulations, we
show that the rate of permafrost thaw begins to stabilize under SAI, but
does not fully stop, likely due to deep permafrost thaw processes that
are resistant to surface temperatures changes. SAI does prevent a
potential tipping point (talik formation) in almost 2 million km2 of
permafrost, most of which is located in permafrost peatlands. Thus, a
more aggressive SAI strategy may be required to rapidly stabilize
permafrost extent.