Assessment of Relative Risk of Seawater Intrusion Mechanisms in the
Coastal Plains of the Limpopo River Basin, Mozambique
Abstract
Seawater inundation was reported in the Limpopo River near the mouth at
Xai-Xai, Mozambique. Local authorities identified a decrease in river
flow as the cause of seawater inundation. We examined the potential of
land subsidence in the relative risk of seawater inundation. Land
subsidence has been identified as a risk to urban centers; however, we
focused on the risk to the surrounding agricultural region. We used
Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) with small
baseline subset (SBAS) method to determine the rate of land subsidence
throughout the agricultural-rich river valley surrounding Xai-Xai,
Mozambique. InSAR presents a useful tool to assess land deformation;
however, the signal decorrelated in the wet season, which limited our
analysis to the dry season. Land subsidence may be due to groundwater
abstraction, erosion without sediment transport and replenishment or
other alteration of the surface, or tectonic movement. We estimated that
the coastal region, which is largely agricultural, has subsided at an
average rate of 13 mm/a from 2017 to 2022 and as much as 30 mm/a. This
suggests that land subsidence contributes to the relative risk of
seawater inundation on the same scale as the decrease in river
discharge. Seawater inundation presents a threat to economic growth and
food security in the region.