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CMIP6 model fidelity in capturing the Southern Hemisphere storm track and its connections with low-frequency variability
  • Isaac Campbell,
  • James Arthur Renwick
Isaac Campbell
Te Herenga Waka - Victoria, University of Wellington

Corresponding Author:isaac.campbell6@googlemail.com

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James Arthur Renwick
Victoria University of Wellington
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Storm tracks are a key component of global atmospheric circulation. Their influence ranges from macro- to mesoscale dynamics, from large-scale movement of heat and momentum to extreme weather events. The scale of their impact makes understanding storm track dynamics critical to forecasting and climate projections. In this study, we assess CMIP6 historical experiment fidelity to observations of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Specifically, storm track climatology, variability, and its interactions with low-frequency variability, with the aim of providing confidence for projections of future climate. We find CMIP6 models replicate results from the ERA-5 reanalysis with high fidelity in some regards; namely, capturing climatology of the 500hPa geopotential height field, the role of large-scale variability, and the baroclinic connection with high-frequency variability. However, models fail to capture the magnitude and variability of the storm track, particularly canonical zonal asymmetry. Our results indicate the importance of the storm track is underestimated in CMIP6.
12 Mar 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
13 Mar 2023Published in ESS Open Archive