Assessing environmental flow alterations induced by dams and climate
change using a distributed hydrological model at catchment-scalel
Abstract
Hydrological alterations can reduce aquatic biodiversity by disrupting
the life cycles of organisms. However, past studies have faced
difficulties in quantifying the impacts of dams and climate change,
which are major drivers of hydrological alterations. Here, we aimed to
evaluate and compare the hydrological alterations caused by dams and
climate change throughout the Omaru River catchment, Japan, using a
distributed hydrological model (DHM). First, to assess the impacts of
dam and climate change independently, we performed runoff analyses using
either dam discharge or future climatic data (two future periods,
2031-2050 and 2081-2100 × three representative concentration pathways).
Subsequently, we derived indicators of hydrologic alterations (IHA) to
quantify changes in flow alterations by comparing them to IHA under
natural conditions (i.e., without dam or climate change data). The
runoff analysis was calibrated and validated by comparing with daily
streamflow at a site with minimal effects of substantial abstraction,
and showed high reproducibility from 2010 to 2019 (Nash-Sutcliffe
efficiency = 0.921–0.964). We found that dams altered IHAs more than
climate change. However, on a catchment-scale standpoint, climate change
induced wider ranges of flow alterations, such as low flow metrics along
the tributaries and uppermost main stem, suggesting a catchment-level
shrinkage in important corridors of aquatic organisms by reducing
upstream length and water level. We also observed that the altered flow
by water withdrawals were ameliorated by the confluence of tributaries
and downstream hydropower outflows. Our approach using a DHM captured
the various patterns of flow alterations by dams and climate change.