Quantifying DNAPL source zone longevity with upscaled modeling:
practical insights from flow-cell experiments and uncertainty analyses
Abstract
Estimating dissipation timeframes and contaminant mass discharge rates
of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) source zones is of key
interest for environmental-management support. Upscaled mathematical
modeling of DNAPL dissolution provides a practical approach for
assimilating site characterization and downgradient monitoring data to
constrain future system behavior. Yet significant uncertainties on
predictions of source zone dissipation rates may arise from inadequate
or inaccurate conceptual assumptions in parameterization designs. These
implications were investigated through upscaled modeling, sensitivity,
and uncertainty analyses of high-resolution flow-cell experiments.
Sensitivity results emphasized the role of local groundwater velocity
and source dimensions in mass transfer scaling by strongly influencing
error with respect to DNAPL persistence and dissolution rates. Linear
uncertainty analyses, facilitated by PEST ancillary software,
demonstrated the worth of monitoring profiles for constraining DNAPL
saturations and dispersive mass transfer rates, responsible for source
zone longevity. Nonlinear analyses performed with the iterative ensemble
smoother PESTPP-iES, facilitated the quantification of unbiased source
dissipation uncertainties from DNAPL delineation data. Conversely,
monitoring data assimilation without consideration of flow-field
heterogeneity and saturation distribution along the flow path biased
model predictions. Our analyses provided practical recommendations on
upscaled model design to assimilate available site data and support
remedial-decision making.