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A Case Study of the Effects of Aerosols on South China Convective Precipitation Forecast
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  • yueya wang,
  • Zijing ZHANG,
  • Wing Sze Chow,
  • Zhe Wang,
  • Jian Zhen Yu,
  • Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung,
  • Xiaoming Shi
yueya wang
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Zijing ZHANG
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Wing Sze Chow
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Zhe Wang
{copyright, serif} The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Jian Zhen Yu
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Xiaoming Shi
Division of Environment and Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Previous studies on South China’s convective precipitation forecast focused on the effects of multi-scale dynamics and microphysics parameterizations. However, how the uncertainty in aerosol data might cause errors in quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) has yet to be investigated. In this case study, we estimate the impact of aerosol uncertainties on the QPF for South China’s severe convection using convection-permitting simulations. The variability range of aerosol concentrations is estimated with past observation for the pre-summer months. Simulation results suggest that the rainfall pattern and intensity change notably when aerosol concentrations are varied. The simulation with low aerosol concentrations produces the most intense precipitation, approximately 50\% stronger than the high-concentration simulation. Decreasing aerosol hygroscopicity also increases precipitation intensity, especially in pristine clouds. The aerosol uncertainty changes alter the number of cloud condensation and ice nuclei, which modifies the altitude and amount of latent heating and thereby modulates convection.