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Development and validation of a new model including inflammation indexes for the long-term prognosis of hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure
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  • Yeqiong Zhang,
  • Qiumin Luo,
  • Xiumei Lin,
  • Lu Wang,
  • Zhipeng Li,
  • Jia Chen,
  • Ruixuan Xu,
  • Lina Wu,
  • Liang Peng,
  • Wenxiong Xu
Yeqiong Zhang
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University
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Qiumin Luo
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University
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Xiumei Lin
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University
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Lu Wang
Binzhou Medical University - Yantai Campus
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Zhipeng Li
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University
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Jia Chen
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University
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Ruixuan Xu
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University
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Lina Wu
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University
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Liang Peng
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University
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Wenxiong Xu
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Background: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a disease characterized by systemic inflammatory response with high mortality. Nowadays, there is no prediction model for its long-term prognosis. We aimed to establish and validate a prognostic prediction model incorporating inflammation indexes to forecast the long-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF). Methods: Retrospective analysis of 986 patients’ clinical data with HBV-ACLF from Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 2014 and December 2018 were conducted. The patients were randomly divided into the training cohort (690 cases) and the validation cohort (296 cases) according to the ratio of 7:3. LASSO and Cox regression analysis were used to determine the independent risk factors for long-term mortality. Results: The following variables were identified: age, cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy, total bilirubin (TBIL), international normalized ratio (INR), Monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and Neutrophil to platelet ratio (NPR), and a new nomogram was constructed to predict the survival rate of 1 -month, 3-month, and 12-month by weighting the scores of each variable. The C-index was 0.777 (95%CI 0.752-0.802), and the AUC was 0.829 (95%CI 0.798-0.859) in the training cohort. The predictive value of the nomogram demonstrated a superior ability to predict long-term survival rate compared to MELD score (0.767, 95% CI: 0.730-0.804, P<0.001), and COSSH-ACLF II score (0.807, 95%CI: 0.774-0.840, P=0.028). Evaluation using calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested its practical utility. Conclusions: The novel inflammation scoring system, including MLR and NPR, can well predict long-term mortality in HBV- ACLF patients.
18 Sep 2024Submitted to Journal of Medical Virology
20 Sep 2024Submission Checks Completed
20 Sep 2024Assigned to Editor
20 Sep 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
23 Sep 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
18 Oct 2024Editorial Decision: Revise Major