Use of geostatistical models to evaluate landscape and stream network
controls on post-fire stream nitrate concentrations
Abstract
Forested watersheds provide many ecosystem services that have become
increasingly threatened by wildfire. Stream nitrate (NO
3 -) concentrations often increase
following wildfire and can remain elevated for decades. We investigated
the drivers of persistent elevated stream NO 3
- in nine watersheds that were burned to varying
degrees 16 years prior by the Hayman fire, Colorado, USA. We evaluated
the ability of multiple linear regression and spatial stream network
modeling approaches to predict observed concentrations of the
biologically active solute NO 3 - and
the conservative solute sodium (Na +). Specifically,
we quantified the degree to which landscape and stream network
characteristics predict stream solute concentrations. No landscape
variables were strong predictors of stream Na +.
Rather, stream Na + variability was largely attributed
to flow-connected spatial autocorrelation, indicating that downstream
hydrologic transport was the primary driver of spatially distributed Na
+ concentrations. In contrast, vegetation cover,
measured as mean normalized differenced moisture index (NDMI), was the
strongest predictor of spatially distributed stream NO 3
- concentrations. Furthermore, stream NO
3 - concentrations had weak
flow-connected spatial autocorrelation and high spatial variability.
This pattern is likely the result of spatially heterogeneous wildfire
behavior that leaves intact forest patches interspersed with high burn
severity patches that are dominated by shrubs and grasses. Post-fire
vegetation also interacts with watershed structure to influence stream
NO 3 - patterns. For example, severely
burned convergent hillslopes in headwaters positions were associated
with the highest stream NO 3 ‑
concentrations due to the high proportional influence of hillslope water
in these locations. Our findings suggest that reforestation is critical
for the recovery of stream NO 3 -
concentrations to pre-fire levels and targeted planting in severely
burned convergent hillslopes in headwater positions will likely have a
large impact on stream NO 3 -
concentrations.