Local chronicles reveal the effect of anthropogenic and climatic impacts
on local extinctions of Chinese pangolins in China
Abstract
Anthropogenic and climatic factors affect the survival of animal
species. Chinese pangolins are a critically endangered species, and
identifying which variables lead to local extinction events is essential
for conservation management. Local chronicles in China serve as
long-term monitoring data, providing a perspective to disentangle the
roles of human impacts and climate changes in local extinctions. Through
a generalized additive model, extinction risk assessment model and
principal component analysis, we combined information from local
chronicles over a period of three hundred years (1700-2000) and
reconstructed environmental data to determine the causes of local
extinctions of the Chinese pangolin in China. Our results showed that
the extinction probability increased with population growth and climate
warming. An extinction risk assessment indicated that the population and
distribution range of Chinese pangolins has been persistently shrinking
in response to highly intensive human activities (main cause) and
climate warming. Overall, the factors that cause local extinction,
intensive human interference and drastic climatic fluctuations induced
by global warming, might increase the local extinction rate of Chinese
pangolins. Approximately 25% of extant Chinese pangolins are confronted
with a notable extinction risk (0.36≤extinction probability≤0.93),
specifically those distributed in Southeast China, including Guangdong,
Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Hunan, Fujian, Jiangsu and Taiwan Provinces. To
rescue this endangered species, we suggest strengthening field
investigations, identifying the exact distribution range and population
density of Chinese pangolins and further optimizing the network of
nature reserves to improve conservation coverage on the territory scale.
Conservation practices that concentrate on the viability assessment of
scattered populations could lead to the successful restoration of the
Chinese pangolin population.