Using gridCoal to assess whether standard population genetic theory
holds in the presence of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in population
size.
Abstract
Spatially explicit population genetic models have long been developed,
yet have rarely been used to test hypotheses about the spatial
distribution of genetic diversity or the expected neutral levels of
genetic divergence between populations. Here, we use spatially explicit
coalescence simulations to explore the properties of the island model
and the two-dimensional stepping stone model under a wide range of
scenarios with spatio-temporal variation in deme size. We avoid the
simulation of genetic data, using the fact that under the studied
models, summary statistics of genetic diversity and divergence between
demes can be approximated from coalescence times. We perform the
simulations using gridCoal, a flexible spatial wrapper for the software
msprime developed herein. In gridCoal, deme sizes can change arbitrarily
across space and time, and migration rates between individual demes can
be specified. We identify the different factors that can cause a
deviation from the theoretical expectations, such as the simulation time
in comparison to the effective deme size and the spatio-temporal
autocorrelation across the grid. Our results highlight that Fst, a
measure of the strength of population structure, principally depends on
recent demography, which makes it robust to temporal variation in deme
size. We also warn that predicting genetic diversity from coalescence
times requires a much longer run time than needed for the estimation of
Fst. Finally, we illustrate the use of gridCoal on a real-world example,
the range expansion of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) since the Last
Glacial Maximum, using different degrees of spatio-temporal variation in
deme size.