Ecological Super-Spreaders Drive Host-Range Oscillations: Omicron and
Risk-Space for Emerging infectious Disease
Abstract
Summary: The unusual genetic diversity of the Omicron strain
has led to speculation about its origin. The mathematical modeling
platform developed for the Stockholm Paradigm (SP) indicates strongly
that it has retro-colonized humans from an unidentified animal reservoir
originally infected by humans. The relationship between Omicron and all
other SARS-CoV-2 variants indicates oscillations among hosts, a core
part of the SP. Such oscillations result from the emergence of novel
variants following colonization of new hosts, replenishing and expanding
the risk space for disease emergence. The SP predicts that pathogens
colonize new hosts using pre-existing capacities. Those events are thus
predictable to a certain extent. Novel variants emerge after a
colonization and are not predictable. This makes it imperative to take
proactive measures for anticipating emerging infectious diseases (EID)
and mitigating their impact. The SP suggests a policy protocol to
accomplish this goal. This is the DAMA Protocol: comprising DOCUMENT to
detect pathogens before they emerge in new places or colonize new hosts;
ASSESS to determine risk; MONITOR to detect changes in pathogen
populations that increase the risk of outbreaks; and ACT to prevent
outbreaks when possible and minimize their impact when they occur.