Abstract
Population dynamics are functions of several demographic processes
including survival, reproduction, somatic growth, and maturation. The
rates or probabilities for these processes can vary by time, by
location, and by individual. These processes can co-vary and interact to
varying degrees, e.g., an animal can only reproduce when it is in a
particular maturation state. Population dynamics models that treat the
processes as independent may yield somewhat biased or imprecise
parameter estimates, as well as predictions of population abundances or
densities. However, commonly used integral projection models (IPMs)
typically assume independence across these demographic processes. We
examine several approaches for modelling between process dependence in
IPMs, and include cases where the processes co-vary as a function of
time (temporal variation), co-vary within each individual (individual
heterogeneity), and combinations of these (temporal variation and
individual heterogeneity). We compare our methods to conventional IPMs,
which treat vital rates independent, using simulations and a case study
of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). In particular, our results indicate that
correlation between vital rates can moderately affect variability of
some population-level statistics. Therefore, including such dependent
structures is generally advisable when fitting IPMs to ascertain whether
or not such between vital rate dependencies exist, which in turn can
have subsequent impact on population management or life-history
evolution.