Inferring Watershed-scale Mean Snow Magnitude and Distribution Using
Multidecadal Snow Reanalysis Patterns and Snow Pillow Observations
Abstract
The magnitude and spatial heterogeneity of snow deposition are difficult
to model in mountainous terrain. Here, we investigated how snow patterns
from a 32-year (1985 – 2016) snow reanalysis in the Tuolumne, Kings,
and Sagehen Creek, California Sierra Nevada watersheds could be used to
improve simulations of winter snow deposition. Remotely-sensed
fractional snow-covered area (fSCA) from dates following peak-snowpack
timing were used to identify dates from different years with similar
fSCA, which indicated similar snow accumulation and depletion patterns.
Historic snow accumulation patterns were then used to 1) relate snow
accumulation observed by snow pillows to watershed-scale estimates of
mean snowfall, and 2) estimate 90 m snow deposition. Finally, snow
deposition fields were used to force snow simulations, the accuracy of
which were evaluated versus airborne lidar snow depth observations.
Except for water-year 2015, which had the shallowest snow estimated in
the Sierra Nevada, normalized snow accumulation and depletion patterns
identified from historic dates with spatially correlated fractional
snow-covered area agreed on average, with absolute differences of less
than 10%. Watershed-scale mean winter snowfall inferred from the
relationship between historic snow accumulation patterns and snow pillow
observations had a ±13% interquartile range of biases between 1985 and
2016. Finally, simulations using 1) historic snow accumulation patterns,
and 2) snow accumulation observed from snow pillows, had snow depth
coefficients of correlations and mean absolute errors that improved by
70% and 27%, respectively, as compared to simulations using a more
common forcing dataset and downscaling technique. This work demonstrates
the real-time benefits of satellite-era snow reanalyses in mountainous
regions with uncertain snowfall magnitude and spatial heterogeneity.