Abstract
The range of the Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) has contracted
substantially from its historical range prior to the 19th century. Using
harvest records, we found that the southern range of the lynx in Ontario
in the late 1940s collapsed and then in a short period of time increased
to its largest extent in the mid-1960s where the lynx range spread south
of the boreal forest for a decade. After this expansion the southern
range contracted northwards beginning in the 1970s. Most recently, there
has been a slight expansion between 2010-2017. We have attributed these
dynamics on the southern range periphery to the fluctuation of the
boreal lynx population in the core of the species’ range. In addition,
connectivity to boreal lynx populations and snow depth seemed to
condition whether the lynx expanded into an area. However, we did not
find any evidence that would suggest that these changes were due to
anthropogenic disturbances or competition. The boreal lynx population
does not reach numbers as it once did, consequently we likely will not
see large expansions of the southern lynx range as in the mid-1960s. Our
results suggest that southern lynx range in Ontario have been driven by
the magnitude of the boreal lynx population cycle, connectivity to the
boreal forest and snow conditions. Therefore, it is quite unlikely that
southern lynx population in the Great Lakes will ever recover, since the
warming climate and forestry practices are causing a northward
contraction of the boreal forest and likely with it the core lynx
populations.