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Barrier islands face a gradual path toward drowning under most sea level rise scenarios
  • Laura Portos-Amill,
  • Jaap H Nienhuis,
  • Huib de Swart
Laura Portos-Amill
Utrecht University

Corresponding Author:l.portosamill@utwente.nl

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Jaap H Nienhuis
Utrecht University
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Huib de Swart
Utrecht University
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Abstract

The expected increase in rates of sea level rise during the 21st century and beyond may cause tidal inlets to expand and barrier islands to drown. However, many aspects remain unclear, e.g., the timescales involved in the drowning process have received little attention. To gain insight into the morphodynamics of barrier systems subject to sea level rise, we here present results obtained with a novel barrier island model, BRIE-D. This new model allows for changes in the alongshore extent of the barrier lying below sea level. These concern reductions in barrier width, barrier height, as well as lateral expansion of tidal inlets. Model results show that the evolution of barrier islands is susceptible to the wave height and the rate of sea level rise that they experience. It takes hundreds of years for barrier islands to drown in response to high rates of sea level rise (more than 15 mm/yr). Furthermore, increasing rates of sea level rise cause an earlier and more severe barrier drowning in environments with low waves. Barrier systems that face higher waves can undergo more frequent inlet closures (due to a larger amount of sediment imported into the inlets), but also the degree of barrier drowning might increase (due to a deepening of the toe of the shoreface). The latter process dominates over the former when rates of sea level rise are higher than 5 mm/yr.