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Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter
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  • Andrea Marcheggiani,
  • Jon I Robson,
  • Paul-Arthur Monerie,
  • Thomas J. Bracegirdle,
  • Doug M Smith
Andrea Marcheggiani
National Centre for Atmospheric Science

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jon I Robson
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading
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Paul-Arthur Monerie
CERFACS (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique)
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Thomas J. Bracegirdle
British Antarctic Survey
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Doug M Smith
Met Office
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This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet’s location and speed. By focussing on decadal predictions made for years 2-9 from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960-2005 we find that there is significant skill in both jet latitude and speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in all three metrics appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, the skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the latest observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy-driven jet and more positive NAO. We suggest the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic Sea surface temperature.