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Rare event simulation of extreme European winter rainfall in an intermediate complexity climate model
  • Jeroen Wouters,
  • Reinhard K.H. Schiemann,
  • Len C. Shaffrey
Jeroen Wouters
University of Reading

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Reinhard K.H. Schiemann
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
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Len C. Shaffrey
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
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We test the application of a rare event simulation algorithm to accelerate the sampling of extreme winter rainfall over Europe in a climate model. The genealogical particle analysis algorithm, an ensemble method that interrupts the simulation at intermediate times to clone realizations in which an extreme event is developing, is applied to the intermediate complexity general circulation model PlaSim. We show that the algorithm strongly reduces the numerical effort required to estimate probabilities of extremes, demonstrating the potential of rare event simulation of seasonal precipitation extremes.