Impact evaluation of water infrastructure investments: Methods,
challenges and demonstration from a large-scale urban improvement in
Jordan
Abstract
Impact evaluation (IE) of large infrastructure presents numerous
challenges, and investments in urban piped water and sanitation are no
exception. Here we present methods for more systematic assessment of the
implications of such interventions, discussing tradeoffs between
validity, relevance and practicality that arise from alternative
approaches. Then, to more clearly illustrate the many issues that
typically arise in such IEs, we draw on an example application in Zarqa,
Jordan, where the Millennium Challenge Corporation invested about
US$275 million to upgrade and extend piped water and sewer networks, as
well as increase the capacity of the country’s largest wastewater
treatment plant. The theory of change for the intervention took a
systems view of impacts: the project aimed to improve water supply to
urban areas while maintaining flows to irrigators through enhanced
wastewater reuse. The case adds valuable evidence on the impacts of
large infrastructure investments and illustrates well the challenges of
capturing spillovers, mitigating study contamination, maintaining
statistical power, and determining overall welfare effects, in
situations involving diverse market and nonmarket impacts. These
limitations notwithstanding, the case highlights the high value of
conducting IEs, and why applied researchers should not give up on
pragmatic and interdisciplinary collaborations to evaluation in the face
of complex interventions.