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Analysis of future heatwaves in the Pearl River Delta through CMIP6-WRF dynamical downscaling
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  • Ziping Zuo,
  • Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung,
  • Zhenning Li,
  • Yiyi Huang,
  • Mau Fung Wong,
  • Alexis Kai-Hon Lau
Ziping Zuo
Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Zhenning Li
Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Yiyi Huang
University of Arizona
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Mau Fung Wong
Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Alexis Kai-Hon Lau
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Abstract

Recent worldwide heatwaves have shattered temperature records in many regions. In this study, we applied a dynamical downscaling method on the high-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-1-2-HR) to obtain projections of the summer thermal environments and heatwaves in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) considering three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in the middle and late 21st century. Results indicated that relative to the temperatures in the 2010s, the mean increases in the summer daytime and nighttime temperatures in the 2040s will be 0.7–0.8 °C and 0.9–1.1 °C, respectively. In the 2090s, they will be 0.5–3.1 °C and 0.7–3.4 °C, respectively. SSP1-2.6 is the only scenario in which the temperatures in the 2090s are expected to be lower than those in the 2040s. Compared with those in the 2010s, hot extremes are expected to be more frequent, more intense, more extensive, and longer-lasting in the future in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. In the 2010s, a heatwave occurred in the PRD lasted for 6 days on average, with a mean daily maximum temperature of 34.4 °C. In the 2040s, the heatwave duration and intensity are expected to increase by 2–3 days and 0.2–0.4 °C in all three scenarios. In the 2090s, the increase in these values will be 23 days and 36.0 °C in SSP5-8.5. Moreover, a 10-year extreme high temperature in the 2010s is expected to occur at a monthly frequency from June to September.