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Fate of Rainfall over the North Indian States of India in the 1.5{degree sign}C and 2{degree sign}C Warming Scenarios
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  • Kanhu Charan Pattnayak,
  • Amit Awasthi,
  • Kuldeep Sharma,
  • Bibhuti Bhusan Pattnayak
Kanhu Charan Pattnayak
School of Earth and Environment

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Amit Awasthi
University of Petroleum & Energy Studies
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Kuldeep Sharma
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Bibhuti Bhusan Pattnayak
Swiss School of Business and Research
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The rise in mean temperature put a great deal of uncertainty about how weather and climate extremes may play out, particularly in India’s varied climatic zones. Consequently, it is important to understand the possible changes in both magnitude and direction of weather and climate extremes like rainfall for different warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios concerning preindustrial and present levels. Hence in the present study, the precipitation behavior of seven North Indian states i.e., Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand carefully studied using observations and CMIP5 models. Future projection of precipitation has been done for two warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios. Along with model validation and future projection of precipitation, the return period of extreme rainfall is also discussed to understand the behavior of the occurrence of extreme precipitation. Statistical analysis shows that the ensemble means have the least error as compared to the other six CMIP5 models. Therefore, future analysis has been done with the ensemble mean. Our findings show that the precipitation is likely to decrease in the 1.5°C scenarios, while it is likely to increase in the 2°C scenarios. The occurrence and intensity of extreme rainfall events are likely to be more frequent in all the models. The return period of the extreme rainfall events is likely to increase in all the states in both the warming scenarios. A three-fold rise is likely to increase extreme rainfall events in the 2 oC scenario.