Abstract
Global warming will soon reach the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5C°/2°C
temperature increase. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the time to
reach these targets varies widely among climate models. Using Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6, we show that a 2°C
near-future global warming rate is determined by Southern Ocean (SO)
state closely tied with a low-level cloud (LLC) amount feedback strength
during the reference (1861-1900) period; climate models with cold SO
tend to accompany more low-level cloudiness and Antarctic sea ice
concentration due to a strong LLC amount feedback. Consequently,
initially cold SO models tend to simulate a fast near-future warming
rate by absorbing more downward shortwave radiation compared to
initially warm SO models because more LLC disappears due to a strong LLC
amount feedback during the 2°C rise. Our results demonstrate that
climate models that correctly simulate initial SO state can improve
near-future projections with reduced uncertainties.