Circus tents, convective thresholds and the non-linear climate response
to tropical SSTs
Abstract
Using model simulations, we demonstrate that the response of
top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes to localized tropical sea surface
temperature (SST) perturbations exhibits numerous non-linearities. Most
pronounced is an ‘asymmetry’ in the response to positive and negative
SST perturbations. Additionally, we identify a ‘magnitude-dependence’ of
response on the size of the SST perturbation. We then explain how these
non-linearities arise as a robust consequence of convective
quasi-equilibrium and weak (but non-zero) temperature gradients in the
tropical free-troposphere, which we encapsulate in a ‘circus tent’ model
of the tropical atmosphere. These results demonstrate that the climate
response to SST perturbations is fundamentally non-linear, and highlight
potential deficiencies in work which has assumed linearity in the
response.