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Seasonally Anchored Bias Correction of CMIP5 Hydrological Simulations
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  • Michael Sierks,
  • David Pierce,
  • William Chapman,
  • Fred Martin Ralph
Michael Sierks
Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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David Pierce
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
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William Chapman
University of California San Diego
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Fred Martin Ralph
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
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Abstract

Robust and reliable projections of future streamflow are essential to create more resilient water resources, and such projections must first be bias corrected. Standard bias correction techniques are applied over calendar-based time windows and leverage statistical relations between observed and simulated data to adjust a given simulated datapoint. Motivated by a desire to connect the statistical process of bias correction to the underlying dynamics in hydrologic models, we introduce a novel windowing technique for projected streamflow wherein data are windowed based on hydrograph-relative time, rather than Julian day. We refer to this method as ‘seasonally anchored’. Four existing bias correction methods, each using both the standard day-of-year and the novel windowing technique, are applied to daily streamflow simulations driven by 10 global climate models across a diverse subset of six watersheds in California to investigate how these methods alter the model climate change signals. Among the methods, only PresRat preserves projected annual streamflow changes, and does so for both windowing techniques. The seasonally anchored window PresRat reduces the ensemble bias by a factor of two compared to quantile mapping (Qmap), cumulative distribution function transform (CDFt), and equidistant quantile matching (EDCDFm) methods. For wet season flows, PresRat with seasonally anchored windowing best preserves the original model change over the entire distribution, particularly at the highest quantiles, and the other three methods show improved performance using the novel windowing method. Concerning temporal shifts in seasonality, PresRat and CDFt preserve the original model signals with both the novel and standard windowing methods.