Assessment of Drought Hazard Change in China under 2 ℃, 3 ℃ and 4 ℃
Temperature Rise Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models
Abstract
Drought is one of the most disastrous extreme climate events. In-depth
studies on the response of drought to climate warming are beneficial to
improve drought risk management. In this study, the standardized
precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on
eighteen climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6). Four drought characteristic indices (drought frequency,
duration, intensity, and peak) were extracted and the drought hazard
index (DHI) was constructed to evaluate drought hazards in China for the
historical reference period and future 2, 3 and 4 ℃ temperature rise
scenarios, and then the change in future drought hazard was analyzed.
The results showed that the drought frequency in the eastern monsoon
region of China had a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in
the north and increased overall with the increase in warming level.
Drought duration, intensity and peak showed a spatial pattern of high in
northwest China and low in southeast China and increased significantly
with increasing warming level. The DHI was relatively high in the
northwest inland and southeast coast of China. Under the 2, 3 and 4 ℃
temperature increase scenarios in the future, except for the
southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the DHI in other climate regions in
China will increase compared with that in the historical reference
period. The national average increase values of DHI under the 3 ℃ and 4
℃ temperature rise scenarios reach 1.5 times and 2 times that under the
2 ℃ temperature rise scenario, respectively.