loading page

Systemic Financial Risk Arising from Residential Flood Losses
  • +2
  • Hope Thomson,
  • Harrison Zeff,
  • Rachel Kleiman,
  • Antonia Sebastian,
  • Gregory Characklis
Hope Thomson
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Harrison Zeff
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Author Profile
Rachel Kleiman
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Author Profile
Antonia Sebastian
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Author Profile
Gregory Characklis
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Author Profile

Abstract

Flood impacts to residential properties threaten the resilience of communities and the institutions that support them. These events can cause negative impacts to property-level balance sheets through uninsured damage and property value decreases, which in turn can increase the likelihood of mortgage default and property abandonment. To date, there have been limited attempts to quantify the magnitude and distribution of additional financial consequences that could arise from these processes following flood events. In this work, property-scale financial data, including property sales, mortgage originations, and insurance claims, are used within an analytical framework to quantify flood-related uninsured damages and property value decrease in order to estimate the financial risk that property owners, mortgage lenders, and local governments are exposed to via recovery decisions (i.e., default and/or abandonment). This framework is applied to residential properties in eastern North Carolina following Hurricane Florence (2018). Within the study area, Hurricane Florence generated $366M in observed insured losses and we estimate an additional $1.77B in balance sheet losses (i.e., uninsured damage and property value decrease). In addition, property owners, mortgage lenders, and local governments were exposed to an estimated $562M of risk from the increased likelihood of mortgage default and property abandonment. Areas with lower pre-event property values and lower rates of insurance purchase experienced significantly higher risk of mortgage default and abandonment. The method described provides more highly resolved estimates of how floods can drive systemic financial risk, information that can be useful in developing improved flood resilience strategies.